Smoke Test
Launch a website as if your product were already available for sale. See how many people try to buy.
What is Smoke Test?
A smoke test is a lean startup validation technique where you create a realistic website or landing page that presents your product as if it's already available for purchase, complete with pricing, product descriptions, and buy buttons. When potential customers attempt to make a purchase, they're typically redirected to a 'coming soon' page or waitlist signup, allowing you to measure genuine purchase intent rather than just interest. This method provides one of the most reliable indicators of market demand because it captures actual buying behavior rather than hypothetical survey responses.
The smoke test is particularly valuable because it tests both desirability (do people want this?) and viability (will they pay for it?) simultaneously. Unlike other validation methods that rely on stated preferences, the smoke test reveals actual consumer behavior when faced with a real purchase decision. The investment required - typically €5000 or more for professional design, development, and marketing - reflects the need for a convincing, high-quality experience that genuinely mimics a real product launch.
When to Use This Experiment
• Before building your MVP - When you have a clear product concept but want to validate demand before investing in development • Testing pricing strategies - When you need to understand what customers are willing to pay for your solution • Validating premium products - Particularly effective for high-value products or services where purchase intent is crucial • B2C products with clear value propositions - Works best when the product benefits are easily communicated and understood • When you have marketing budget - You need sufficient funds to drive quality traffic to make the test statistically significant • Competitive market validation - When entering established markets where you need to prove you can capture market share • Before seeking major investment - Provides concrete data on purchase intent to present to investors
How to Run This Experiment
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Define your test hypothesis - Clearly articulate what you're testing (e.g., "At least 3% of visitors will attempt to purchase our product at €99")
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Create a professional website - Build a complete e-commerce experience with product pages, pricing, testimonials, and compelling copy that matches your brand vision
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Implement purchase flow tracking - Set up analytics to track every step of the purchase funnel, from product page views to checkout attempts
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Design the 'reveal' experience - Create a thoughtful redirect page that explains the product isn't ready yet and captures contact information for launch notifications
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Drive targeted traffic - Launch paid advertising campaigns, social media promotion, or PR efforts to attract your ideal customer demographic
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Monitor key metrics - Track conversion rates, time on site, cart abandonment points, and attempted purchase rates daily
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Analyze results and iterate - Evaluate whether your conversion rates meet your hypothesis, identify drop-off points, and refine your approach
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Follow up with interested users - Contact people who attempted purchases to gather qualitative feedback and build your pre-launch customer base
Pros and Cons
Pros
• High reliability - Measures actual purchase behavior rather than stated intent, providing trustworthy validation data • Tests complete value proposition - Validates product-market fit, pricing, messaging, and customer journey simultaneously • Builds customer list - Creates a database of highly qualified leads who demonstrated purchase intent • Professional brand building - Establishes credible market presence and brand recognition early • Investor-grade data - Provides concrete metrics that investors find compelling for funding decisions
Cons
• High upfront investment - Requires significant budget for quality website development and traffic acquisition • Potential brand damage - Risk of disappointing early customers or appearing deceptive if not handled transparently • Legal and ethical considerations - Must carefully manage customer expectations and comply with advertising standards • Time-intensive - Requires substantial effort to create convincing experience and drive meaningful traffic • Limited product types - Works best for straightforward products; complex B2B solutions may not translate well
Real-World Examples
Dropbox famously used a smoke test approach before building their file synchronization service, creating a simple website that demonstrated the product concept through a video demo and measured sign-up rates for the beta. The overwhelming response validated market demand and helped secure early funding. Buffer took a similar approach, launching a landing page that walked visitors through their social media scheduling concept and pricing tiers, measuring how many people clicked through to a 'coming soon' page at each price point, which helped them optimize pricing before development.
More recently, many D2C brands like Away luggage and Casper mattresses used sophisticated smoke tests that included detailed product photography, specifications, and even mock checkout processes to validate demand for their physical products before manufacturing. These tests helped them understand not just whether people wanted their products, but also which features, colors, and price points generated the highest purchase intent, allowing them to optimize their actual product development and launch strategies.